Claude, Microsoft Copilot Fail Again to Predict the Winners of the Kentucky Derby
In 2016 an online "swarm intelligence" platform generated a correct prediction for the Kentucky Derby — naming all four top finishers in order. (But its 2017 predictions weren't even close.) Slashdot checked in again on how modern AI systems performed in 2023, 2024, and 2025 — but their predictions were still pretty bad. Would AI-generated Derby predictions be any better in 2026?
This year's winner was 24-to-1 longshot "Golden Tempo" — though a lot of oddsmakers had favored a horse named Further Ado (which ultimately only finished 11th). So when USA Today prompted Microsoft Copilot for its own picks for the Kentucky Derby, Copilot also went with Further Ado. (Even worse, it predicted Golden Tempo would come in... 13th.)
Here's how Copilot's picks actually performed...
Further Ado (finished 11th)Chief Wallabee (finished 4th)The Puma (SCRATCHED)Renegade (finished 2nd)Commandment (finished 7th)So Happy (finished 9th)Emerging Market (finished 10th)Danon Bourbon (finished 5th)Potente (finished 12th)Incredibolt (finished 6th)Robusta (finished 14th)Ocelli (finished 3rd)Golden Tempo (finished 1st)Pavlovian (finished 18th)Great White (SCRATCHED)Wonder Dean (finished 8th) Litmus Test (finished 17th)Albus (finished 15th)Six Speed (finished 13th)Intrepido (finished 16th)
Copilot was told to use the latest odds, conditions, and analysis of favorites, best bets, expert picks, previous results and race history with the post positions, according to USA Today.
And meanwhile, Yahoo Sports asked Claude "to simulate the race using the opening odds, draw and potential track conditions. We also asked it to factor in some human predictions."
Like Microsoft Copilot, Claude also picked Further Ado to finish first (though it came in 11th) — and predicted that Golden Tempo (the eventual first-place finisher) would finish 12th.
Further Ado (finished 11th)The Puma (SCRATCHED)Commandment (finished 7th)Chief Wallabee (finished 4th)Renegade (finished 2nd)Emerging Market (finished 10th)So Happy (finished 9th)Incredibolt (finished 6th)Danon Bourbon (finished 5th)Potente (finished 12th)Pavlovian (finished 18th)Golden Tempo (finished 1st) Litmus Test (finished 17th)Albus (finished 15th)Wonder Dean (finished 8th)Six Speed (finished 13th)Intrepido (finished 16th)
This year's winner was 24-to-1 longshot "Golden Tempo" — though a lot of oddsmakers had favored a horse named Further Ado (which ultimately only finished 11th). So when USA Today prompted Microsoft Copilot for its own picks for the Kentucky Derby, Copilot also went with Further Ado. (Even worse, it predicted Golden Tempo would come in... 13th.)
Here's how Copilot's picks actually performed...
Further Ado (finished 11th)Chief Wallabee (finished 4th)The Puma (SCRATCHED)Renegade (finished 2nd)Commandment (finished 7th)So Happy (finished 9th)Emerging Market (finished 10th)Danon Bourbon (finished 5th)Potente (finished 12th)Incredibolt (finished 6th)Robusta (finished 14th)Ocelli (finished 3rd)Golden Tempo (finished 1st)Pavlovian (finished 18th)Great White (SCRATCHED)Wonder Dean (finished 8th) Litmus Test (finished 17th)Albus (finished 15th)Six Speed (finished 13th)Intrepido (finished 16th)
Copilot was told to use the latest odds, conditions, and analysis of favorites, best bets, expert picks, previous results and race history with the post positions, according to USA Today.
And meanwhile, Yahoo Sports asked Claude "to simulate the race using the opening odds, draw and potential track conditions. We also asked it to factor in some human predictions."
Like Microsoft Copilot, Claude also picked Further Ado to finish first (though it came in 11th) — and predicted that Golden Tempo (the eventual first-place finisher) would finish 12th.
Further Ado (finished 11th)The Puma (SCRATCHED)Commandment (finished 7th)Chief Wallabee (finished 4th)Renegade (finished 2nd)Emerging Market (finished 10th)So Happy (finished 9th)Incredibolt (finished 6th)Danon Bourbon (finished 5th)Potente (finished 12th)Pavlovian (finished 18th)Golden Tempo (finished 1st) Litmus Test (finished 17th)Albus (finished 15th)Wonder Dean (finished 8th)Six Speed (finished 13th)Intrepido (finished 16th)
Read more of this story at Slashdot.
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