Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday warned that the United States is trying to sow discord as he urged Albertans not to vote for a separation referendum.

“The stakes are high. This referendum, it comes at the worst possible time. The world has become more dangerous and divided,” Carney said at a rally in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of Monday’s vote, which will see residents decide whether the oil-rich province should hold a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada. “There are some outside our borders who are working to break us, so they can own us.”

While Carney didn’t explicitly name the U.S., the remarks echoed his previously warnings of the dangers of American dominance. Carney's statement came after U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday revisited his ambitions to annex Canada, telling the crowd at a rally in Arizona that the country will “end up being the 51st state, because it's the only way it works.” Trump again accused Canada of treating the U.S. “very badly” and vowed he won’t allow it to happen anymore as “it’s a whole different ballgame now [that] Trump is in town.”

The U.S. and Canada remain in a contentious trade standoff after negotiations collapsed in August. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs came into effect last month, matching the economic pressure imposed by the U.S. Carney has encouraged Canadians to band together and take back their economic power by choosing Canadian products over those made in the U.S. The trade tussle comes after months of Trump repeatedly threatening Canada’s sovereignty—a move that has stoked tensions between the U.S. Administration and Canadian officials.

In light of Trump’s most recent remarks about possible annexation, Canada’s former deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said it would be dangerous to deepen or maintain close economic ties with a neighbor that “openly says they want to take you over.”

Carney admitted in an interview with the New York Times last month that he had studied the risk of a U.S. invasion, given Trump’s charged rhetoric. “I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” he said. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to [prepare].”

Trump’s references to Canada one day being America’s “51st state” come at a time when Carney is desperately trying to promote his “Canada Strong” strategy—one that he hopes will very much include Alberta. Polling conducted by 338Canada suggests that as of Oct. 11, 75% of Albertans would vote to remain part of Canada. But Carney’s resolve is being tested on more than one front after separatists Parti Québécois’ won Quebec's provincial election earlier this month. Quebec’s incoming Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of has stated his intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. While he has vowed not to initiate such a vote so long as Trump is in office, the looming presence of a separatist movement undoubtedly complicates matters for Carney at a time when he is striving to show that Canada is strong enough to prosper without relying on the American market.

However, experts tell TIME the pressure and rhetoric from the U.S. could actually work in Carney’s favor. “The effect of Trump's comments has been unifying,” says Lori Turnbull, a professor in political science at Dalhousie University. Despite discussions of independence in Alberta and Quebec, she says “there isn't widespread panic that the country is coming apart.”

In fact, research conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research in 2025 found that “in almost every province, the proportion of residents who are very attached to Canada is greater than the proportion who are very attached to their province.”

With the U.S. and Canada locked in a trade stalemate, and with annexation threats once again dominating the conversation, here’s a look at the reality Carney is facing as he deals with both domestic and international pressures.

Trump's remarks complicate Carney’s unity efforts

Trump’s accusations that Canada has taken advantage of the U.S. on matters of trade and security date back to before Carney became Prime Minister in March 2025, meaning the friction we’re currently seeing goes deeper than a simple clash between Trump and Carney.

Trump would often refer to Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau as the "governor" of the "great state of Canada." 

As for the potential of a physical threat facing Canada, Patrick Leblond, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, says that Carney “put it best when he talked about tail risk” in his interview with the Times. “It’s the financial term for something that has potentially high impact, but low probability,” Leblond explains.

Trump’s economic actions and threats have proven to be far more damaging than his annexation remarks, experts note.

“He has weaponized market access to the U.S.,” says Leblond. “What we can expect is more economic pressure from the White House in the coming months. Trump and his acolytes certainly [appear to] see Canada as a small, weak country that the United States should try to squeeze further.”

The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, with almost $2.6 billion worth of goods and services passing across the border daily in 2024. According to the Office for the U.S. Trade Representative, trade between the two was down 4.6% from 2024 to 2025, but still saw $872.3 billion worth of goods and services cross the border.

Still, there are concerns that any annexation threats could damage Carney’s high-stakes domestic campaign to unite the country under a “Canada Strong” strategy. “Our sovereignty is under threat. America’s unjustified trade war is an attempt to weaken us,” reads an online notice from Carney’s Liberal Party.

On the home front, the success of a separatist party in Quebec is another threat to the unity that Carney is currently striving for. However, despite the Parti Québécois winning (although they fell five seats short of securing a majority government), the desire for separatism among Quebec residents remains low—with only 31% in favor of sovereignty for the province, according to data from 338 Canada released on Oct. 11.

“If Quebec is on a path to separation or not, it would never be because they were looking for further alignment with the United States,” argues Turnbull. “Quebec has a variety of cultural protections in the Canadian federation. They would have none of that in the United States.” 

The more immediate risk for Carney lies in Alberta, with residents preparing to vote on whether the province should hold a referendum to separate from Canada, following growing support for independence that saw more than 279,000 signatures gathered by July for such a vote. According to polling by Canadian analytical body The Writ, 70% of Albertans are in favor of remaining part of Canada, as of Oct. 9.

Carney, who was raised in Edmonton, Alberta, on Thursday framed the referendum as an opportunity for voters to “stand up for Alberta, the heart of Canada” and “recognize that we're all responsible for each other.” 

How Trump’s threats could also help Carney

Upon Trump’s return to office in January 2025, the President was quick to relay his desires to make Canada the 51st state, notably saying amid trade negotiations with Trudeau in February last year: “What I’d like to see; Canada become our 51st state…if people wanted to play the game right, it would be 100% certain that it would become a state.”

Between Trudeau’s resignation on Jan. 6, and a general election on April 28, Carney’s Liberal Party went from 20% to 42.8% in the polls, according to CBC, with Carney’s message of defiance in the face of Trump proving to be a rallying point. 

This falls in line with falling favorable views of the U.S. among Canadians. In July, 44% of  Canadians surveyed had a favorable opinion of China compared to 33% of Canadians who held the same view of the U.S., according to a Pew Research Center survey.

“When China is more popular than the U.S. in a country like Canada, you have to ask yourself: ‘What's going on?’” says Leblond.

Continued annexation threats could bring Canadians even closer together.  “Already, trust is very low, and [more threats] would confirm even more that the United States is [perhaps] not a trustworthy partner at this time,” Leblond argues. 

Since the U.S.-Canada trade war reignited in August, Carney has seen his domestic approval rating bounce back up. On Oct. 15 it stood at 62% according to Poliwave, compared to at 56% in mid-July.

Carney’s resistance against American economic pressures could help the Prime Minister, particularly in possible separatist provinces.

 “In August, when Carney walked out of the negotiations with the U.S., the highest levels of support for him were found in Quebec,” says Leblond, showing strong public appetite for his response to the trade war. Carney’s approval rating in Quebec grew from 76% to 80% between Aug. 17, and Sep. 7, the highest in any province, according to Liaison Strategies. 

Turnbull says the support behind Carney’s decision to walk away from negotiations prompted a strong sense of “patriotism and loyalty.” 

That attitude among Canadians has been reflected in the burgeoning “Buy Canadian” movement, in which consumers across the country have joined a boycott of U.S. products in an effort to feed back into the Canadian economy. 

Carney strengthens international alliances to end reliance on American market 

In September, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to work toward becoming the bloc’s first “associate member,” in what she described as an “urgent” reimagining of partnerships. 

While addressing the European Parliament as a guest of honor in Strasbourg, France, Carney insisted “Europe and Canada are stronger together” and said “Canada and the European Union can anchor our ground to hold our values while forming a protective canopy under which our citizens can thrive.”

He warned that“economic integration is now being weaponized, tariffs being used to exert pressure” and that  “financial mechanisms have been used for coercion” in an apparent nod to the deepening trade war with the U.S. 

Trump called the unique membership proposal “laughable” and has threatened economic punishments if the E.U. moves forward with von der Leyen’s plan.

Carney’s shift towards other partnerships “doesn't mean that Canada is not going to do business with the U.S., but it's no longer a preferred partner,” says Leblond, noting thatCarney wants to build relations with partners that “share the same values in terms of rules-based trade and investment.”

During his visit to Europe, Carney also met with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and formally applied for Canada to join the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a coalition of ten northern European and Arctic nations aimed at strengthening defense and security in the region. 

In January, after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Carney announced a new strategic partnership with China, focused on “energy, agri-food, and trade.” While meeting with Canada’s third-largest export market, Carney agreed to cut his country’s 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in return for lower tariffs on Canadian farm products, including canola seeds, a major Canadian export.

These stronger international ties that diversify trade and security away from the U.S. are proving popular on the homefront, according to data. 

“Carney certainly has the credibility and the network to really push these partnerships, and I think Canadians again are supportive of that,” says Leblond. 

According to Abacus Data, a survey conducted in September found that 49% of Canadians would support Canada joining the E.U., compared to 30% who would not. An Ipsos poll  conducted in January in light of Carney’s visit to China found that 54% of Canadians also said they support stronger trade ties with China.