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2014-07-09
R.I.P. William 'Bill' Herbert Kelder - Intellpuke

2013-11-28
Gamers Donate 37,500 Pounds Of Food To Needy

2013-09-30
Statement From The Whitehouse Regarding The Government Shutdown

2013-09-29
An Open Response To 'Organizing for Action'

2013-08-26
Bayou Corne: The Biggest Ongoing Disaster In The U.S. You Have Not Heard Of

2013-04-21
Boston Mayor Hopes Feds 'Throw the Book' at Marathon Bombing Suspect

2013-04-19
Boston Police Closing In On Suspects

2013-04-15
2 Explosions At Boston Marathon. 2 Dead, Many Injured.

2013-01-03
The Press vs Citizens Rights and Privacy - Act 3

2012-12-30
CBS News - Year In Review 2012

Nature.com - 366 Days: 2012 In Review

The Guardian - 2012 In Review: An Interactive Guide To The Year That Was

TruTV - The Biggest Conspiracy Theories of 2012

Colbert Nation: 2012: A Look Back

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2012-12-25
Happy Holidays

2012-12-21
Welcome To A New Era!

2012-12-16
An Open Letter To United Health Care, Medcom, And The Medical Insurance Industry In General

2012-11-17
Whitehouse Petition To Remove "Under God" and "In God" From Currency And The Pledge.

2012-11-15
December 21, 2012

2012-11-11
If Hillary Clinton Ran For President, She Would Probably Be The Best-prepared Candidate In American History

2012-11-10
CIA Director David Petraeus Resigns After FBI Investigation Uncovers Affair With High-Profile Journalist

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2012-11-07
Thank you for voting.

2012-11-06
Live Election Results

2012-09-30
FIP In Hiatus

2012-09-18
U.S.-Afghan Military Operations Suspended After Attacks

Iran Nuclear Chief Says IAEA Might Be Infiltrated By 'Terrorists And Saboteurs'

Romney Stands By Gaffe

2012-09-17
President Obama Says China Trade Practices Harm American Auto Parts Workers


EconomicsBlog: Research Shows Democrats Better For Wall Street Than Republicans
2012-08-29 13:53:54 (103 weeks ago)
Posted By: Intellpuke

As ever, the economy will be the key issue in the U.S. presidential race. Mitt Romney's aim will be to brand President Barack Obama a failure for his stewardship and to argue that Americans would be better off electing a Republican who knows something about business.

The team at CMC Markets set out to test this assumption by analyzing stock market returns under every president since 1900. A YouTube presentation of the report ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ_CWFjFrvw ) shows that as far as Wall Street is concerned, it is better to vote Democrat. The average monthly return on the stock market has been 0.73% under Democrat presidents, almost double the 0.38% under Republicans.

Returns were highest under Calvin Coolidge, a Republican president during the Roaring 20s, when the stock market boomed ahead of the Wall Street Crash. But the next two presidents in the league table were Democrats – Bill Clinton and Franklin Roosevelt. Obama's performance, using this yardstick of economic health, has been above average – only slightly below that of Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

Normally higher stock market returns would be associated with higher levels of risk but, when adjusted for volatility, Democrat presidents still come out comfortably on top.

The good news for Obama is that incumbent presidents who have presided over strong stock market returns in their first term usually get re-elected. This was true of FDR, Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton. The bad news is that the pattern does not always hold true. Wall Street did well under George Bush senior but that didn't stop him being a one-term president. It did badly under his son but George Bush junior still held off John Kerry in 2004.

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Studies of this sort inevitably only provide a partial impression of presidential economic records. A more comprehensive study would include unemployment, inflation, living standards and the distribution of the spoils of growth. It can also be said that, in some cases, a president can bequeath problems to his successor. Herbert Hoover was the worst president for Wall Street in the past 112 years, but he followed Coolidge. Similarly, it could be argued that the poor returns under George Bush junior reflected the unsustainable nature of the dotcom bubble under Clinton.

Even so, the evidence is that Democrats are good for Wall Street. Whether that is something Obama wants to boast about between now and early November remains to be seen.

Intellpuke: You can read this economicsblog by Guardian Economics Editor Larry Elliott in context here: www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/aug/29/democrats-better-wall-street-republicans


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