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A Gallup poll published earlier this month found that 60
percent of Americans think things are going badly. That was before the
massive leak of secret U.S. military reports on WikiLeaks, which drove
home what an uphill struggle Afghanistan has been.
Opposition to the war is growing, especially within President
Barack Obama's Democratic Party, amid a slow economic recovery and
surging federal deficit. On July 27, 102 Democrats in the House of
Representatives, all facing re-election in November, voted
unsuccessfully to kill $33 billion in emergency war funding.
With mixed signals from Congress and Obama about how long U.S.
troops will remain, Afghan leaders say they're uncertain of U.S.
intentions.
On the ground, in the face of a determined Taliban
assassination campaign, the Afghan government's performance is unlikely
to improve. Despite concerted diplomacy and the promise of an enormous
new U.S. aid package, the Obama administration can't convince Pakistan
to close down the Afghan insurgent sanctuaries that border Afghanistan.
Failure in Kandahar could doom the U.S.-led counterinsurgency operation.
"It is from Kandahar that the Taliban attempt to control the
hearts and minds of the Afghan people," said Adm. Mike Mullen, the
chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, in June. "It is my belief that
should they go unchallenged there and in the surrounding areas, they
will feel equally unchallenged elsewhere.
"As goes Kandahar, so goes Afghanistan," he said.
A major obstacle in Kandahar - and across Afghanistan - is a
lack of competent and honest administrators and police who can win the
loyalty of the city's estimated 800,000 people and turn them against
local warlords and the insurgents.
"Building up formal institutions of government takes a long
time," said a senior Western official in Kandahar who also asked not to
be identified so he could speak candidly. "So I would certainly hesitate
to declare victory too soon on that one."
Kandahar's dominant power is provincial council chief Ahmed
Wali Karzai, Afghan President Hamid Karzai's half-brother, who Afghan
and U.S. experts say uses his position to control jobs, land and
lucrative Western contracts.
Ahmed Wali Karzai, who denies allegations of corruption and
drug smuggling, is immensely unpopular, Kandaharis say. Yet the Obama
administration appears resigned to working with him following
unsuccessful efforts to persuade his brother to remove him.
"What should Kandaharis, who are scared to death right now that
they will be killed or bombed, think?" asked Nazif Shahrani, an Indiana
University professor of anthropology and Central Asia studies who was
born in northern Afghanistan. "Governance without popular support is
dictatorship."
To deter Kandaharis from cooperating with the U.S.-led
operation, Taliban hit squads are killing an average of one person a
day, many of them local officials. The insurgents have attacked NATO
convoys, targeted police stations and bombed Western aid groups.
Last month, the district governor of Arghandab was killed by a car bomb, delivering another setback to the campaign.
With summer advancing and the dawn-to-dusk Muslim fasting month
of Ramadan looming, Western strategists are lowering expectations for a
decisive turnaround before year's end from what's been dubbed Operation
Hamkari, or "cooperation" in the Dari language.
"Hamkari is not something you can do for four or five months
and stop," said a second senior Western official based in Kandahar who
asked not to be identified so he could be more candid.
If all goes as planned, Afghan and American forces hope to
control most of the Arghandab Valley by the start of Ramadan next week.
Western strategists are still searching for a definition of
success in a battle that they've long argued should be judged more for
its ability to install a respected local government and less for how
many militants it kills.
"Everyone is asking what success is going to look like - and no
one knows," said Cathy Dunlap of the Afghanistan Counterinsurgency
Advisory and Assistance Team, a group of outside consultants advising
Petraeus.
On a recent afternoon at a new U.S. military outpost dubbed
"Hooligan," set up on a road linking the valley with Kandahar city, a
U.S. Army officer said progress was difficult to assess.
"It's hard to measure," said the officer with the 508th
Parachute Infantry Regiment of the 82nd Airborne Division of Fort Bragg,
North Carolina, who asked not to be identified because he wasn't authorized to
speak to the media. "It's difficult to tell what success is. It's a big
question in Afghanistan."
The U.S.-Afghan military surge is visible everywhere, with
convoys rumbling through the province with increasing regularity.
American and Afghan forces are setting up a new ring of checkpoints to
choke the flow of Taliban fighters, and a surge of civilian strategists
into Kandahar city has created a new battalion of experts focused on
supporting U.S.-backed politicians.
Western generals are doing all they can to let their Afghan
counterparts steer the operation. They consider the fight the latest
test for Afghan security forces that remain bedeviled by high illiteracy
rates, drug use and corruption.
Senior Obama administration officials insist that they're
making progress building up Afghanistan's army, police, judiciary and
other governmental machinery, constructing roads, schools and other
infrastructure and expanding agriculture and other sectors.
They also cite President Karzai's reaffirmation at a July 20
international conference in Kabul of his commitment to root out
corruption and boost governance and accountability, and the backing he
received in June at a national peace gathering for reconciling with the
insurgents.
Obama has set July 2011 as the start of a drawdown of U.S.
troops, who'll number some 100,000 by next summer's end, and the
transfer of secure districts to Karzai's government.
Yet violence is raging at an unprecedented level as the Taliban
step up attacks on civilians, massive corruption persists, and progress
training competent Afghan security forces is fitful.
A report released Thursday by the Senate Intelligence Committee
said that Afghanistan's illicit drug trade generates $2.8 billion
annually and has become a primary source of financing for the
insurgency.
The administration's call for a review of the military
situation in December has left Karzai confused, said James Dobbins,
President George W. Bush's first special envoy to Afghanistan.
"He's still not exactly sure what the U.S. objectives are,"
said Dobbins, who just returned from Kabul. Dobbins said that Obama's
planned review of Afghan policy late this year shows "explicitly" that
the administration may change its policy once again.
In response, Karzai appears to be testing multiple avenues
aimed at kick-starting peace negotiations with the Taliban. Yet none of
his gestures, including releasing Taliban detainees, requesting the
removal of Taliban leaders from a United Nations terrorist list and
seeking smoother relations with neighboring Pakistan, have been
reciprocated publicly.
Instead, they're fueling dangerous frictions between him and
leaders of Afghanistan's ethnic minorities who oppose reconciliation
with the Pashtun foes they fought for nearly a decade before driving
them from power with U.S. backing in 2001.
Pakistan's military, elements of which are said by U.S.
officials to back the insurgency, have declined to move against the
sanctuaries on their side of the rugged frontier where Taliban leaders
and the heads of allied militant groups direct and supply their fighters
in Afghanistan.
"The Pakistanis have to shut down the sanctuaries, but they
haven't done it out of their own self-interest," said Walter Anderson, a
former State Department intelligence analyst who teaches at Johns
Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in
Washington.
Anderson was referring to the widely held view that the
Pakistani military wants insurgent leaders to form a pro-Pakistan
government in Kabul that would prevent Afghanistan from falling under
the influence of arch-rival India.
Intellpuke: You can read this article by McClatchy Newspapers
correspondent Dion Nissenbaum, reporting from Arghandab, Afghanistan,
and staff writer Jonathan S. Landay, reporting from Washington, D.C.,
in context here:
www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/07/30/98430/us-led-coalition-finds-success.html
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