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Gerard
Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered, said the U.S. was
continuing to grow but unlike previous recoveries was failing to gain
momentum.
"Normally at this stage of the recovery we see
confidence returning, but that just isn't happening at the moment.
Instead we see anxiety about the future and the outlook for sub-trend
growth," he said.
Lyons warned that while a policy of low interest
rates and support for the banking sector was keeping the economy from
slipping back into recession, there would need to be further injections
of funds by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year to maintain
growth.
"I think we will see further monetary easing in the U.S. and the U.K. in the second half of the year."
In
the first half of the year the U.S. government maintained subsidies for
home buyers and a range of other spending programs to stimulate the
battered economy.
However, the injection of federal funds has
increasingly been outweighed by steep cuts in local spending as
individual state's wrestle with huge fiscal deficits.
California
is struggling to pay its bills amid a row over $11 billion of cuts in
spending. State finance minister John Chiang has threatened to pay for
services with I.O.U.'s until governor Arnold Schwarzenegger reaches
agreement with state legislators.
The debt crisis enveloping the state has already prompted ratings agencies to downgrade its bonds.
Other states are pushing through cuts to balance their books after they protected public spending during the downturn last year.
Republicans
have demanded the democrat-led Congress and President Obama withdraw
the fiscal stimulus that re-flated the economy in the second half of last
year and provided support for much of the growth in the first half of
2010.
Economists said the withdrawal of public funds at federal
and state level would slow growth in the second half. Some critics,
including leading liberal economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz,
have argued the administration risks pushing the economy back into
recession.
Major revisions to the GDP figures showed growth was
stronger in the first half, up from an original estimate of 2.7% to
3.7%. However, the commerce department said revisions showed the
recession caused a bigger dent in growth and output contracted 4.1% peak
to trough versus 3.7% previously reported.
Intellpuke: Why are American consumers not spending? Simple.
American consumers - unlike the U.S. Congress and Wall Street - know
they can't spend money they do not have. Ergo, unless more jobs for
Americans are created and wages are sufficient to meet obligations in
an economy of ever-rising prices, consumer confidence will remain where
it is now, at almost zero.
You can read this article by Guardian economics correspondent Phillip
Inman in context here:
www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/30/us-economy-falters-consumer-spending-slows
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