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Along with Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, Italy is one of the
unfortunately named PIIGS countries - the axis of mismanagement, if you
will. It's an appalling performance for a state that belongs to the
exclusive G-8 club of the world's seven leading industrialized nations
and Russia. Rating agencies put Italy on par with such shaky countries
as Ireland, Malta and Portugal. Does Italy pose a threat for all of
Europe?
Trusting in Italy
Cannata is familiar with the rumors. The bottom line is numbers,
though, not words - and how much interest Italy will ultimately have to
pay on its debts. Every percentage point reflects a degree of trust,
and every 10th of a percent less is a personal triumph for her.
When Cannata had to restructure billions in debts again last April -
€9.5 billion to be exact - for a long time it looked as if there
weren't enough buyers for the new government bonds. Some experts
advised her to float fewer bonds on the market, to avoid driving down
prices. But Cannata stuck to her course and, in the end, got what she
wanted. She often negotiates better conditions than Spain, which
doesn't have nearly as much government debt.
Is this an extraordinary ability? Gambling against the trend? Or just
a cheap trick? Why, in the midst of the financial crisis, should anyone
believe in this country, whose government debt can be partly attributed
to Roman nepotism and corruption?
Ongoing Crisis
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, 73, is politically weaker than at
any other time since his re-election two years ago. For weeks now, his
government coalition has appeared paralyzed, bitterly wrangling over a
wiretapping law that Berlusconi wants to push through before the summer
break, and mired in one bribery and justice scandal after the other. Two
ministers have had to retire since May, and now, of all people, Economy
Ministry undersecretary Nicola Cosentino has also had to step down amid
allegations of mafia contacts and founding a secret society.
When Berlusconi received the "Grande Milano" award last week in Milan
for his life's work, he was praised as a "statesman with rare abilities
who leads his country with a clear conscience into the future." In
reality, however, Berlusconi's political days are numbered. The struggle
over his succession is already underway.
Cannata doesn't talk about politics - she's not allowed to. She says
that Italy has been plagued by an ongoing crisis for the past 20 years
- that's how long the country has been teetering on the edge of
bankruptcy. In 1994, its debt peaked at 121.8 percent of GDP. There was
already a lot of talk of action back then - even though there was no
global financial crisis at the time - but that didn't have much of an
impact on the amount of debt amassed by the country. Italy continued
along the same path.
Ironically, the country's state of permanent crisis has perhaps had
the effect of staving off the worst during the current crisis. It
doesn't have to weather a burst real estate bubble or a construction
crisis. Italy didn't have to bail out any banks, either. The government
already had its hands full with its own debts.
Avoiding Others' Mistakes
While in Spain and Ireland a debt-financed construction boom and
dubious deals by investment bankers were generating high growth rates,
Italy was busy tinkering with its high government debt. "A more highly
regulated banking system offered fewer opportunities to copy the
mistakes made by other E.U. countries," says Alexander Kockerbeck, an
analyst at the U.S. rating agency Moody's. Italy hasn't engaged in the
excesses of the past few years.
Italy is suddenly seen as the country that has shown its mettle in the
crisis by taking the toughest stance, as an expert in debt management.
No country in Europe has been forced to tighten its belt as brutally
as Italy. Cannata's boss, Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, has just
enacted draconian cost-cutting measures for his country. He did so
against the will of Berlusconi, who has been scoffing at the crisis for
months - even promising tax cuts and maintaining that Italy is the
richest country in the E.U.
The austerity measures aim to save nearly €25 billion by the year
2012, with the main burden being shouldered by municipalities and
regions. Its budget deficit amounts to 5.3 percent of GDP, roughly twice
as much as in the past, yet remains significantly lower than the
European average. The Italians plan for it to drop low enough to meet
the Maastricht criteria, which stipulate that a euro-zone member's
budget deficit can not exceed 3 percent of GDP, by the year 2012.
Experience with a Debt Mountain
Italy may not be the only EU country that is placing demands on its
citizens, but it is the only one that isn't helping them in other areas.
The country didn't even have enough money for an economic stimulus
package during the financial crisis.
And there is nothing to indicate that things will improve in the
future. According to the latest study by the Italian research institute
Demos & Pi entitled "We, the Others and the Crisis," 56 percent of
Italians no longer believe in Berlusconi's state-decreed optimism.
Nearly half of those surveyed fear a Greek tragedy and assess their own
economic situation in the year 2010 as "bad" to "very bad."
"Necessity is the mother of invention," says Cannata, the debt
manager. She now travels a great deal around the world representing
Italy, on a mission to build trust. She has to make it clear that
government debt alone says nothing about a country - and that it
doesn't present a threat, but rather an opportunity. According to
Cannata, it's the years of experience with a mountain of debt that win
over her investors.
Solid Footing
Cannata believes that it's no coincidence that Italy was the first
country to create a sophisticated electronic trading system for
government bonds - the bond trading platform MTS.
Italy has secured long-term financing, giving it a relatively solid
footing. The average maturity period for government bonds is an
impressive seven years. Furthermore, most of these securities have
fixed - not variable - interest rates. "This will allow the Italians to
benefit from today's historically low interest rates for a long time to
come," says Kockerbeck.
Even today, the balance sheets of Italian banks primarily contain
business loans for Italy's many small and medium-sized companies, which
form the backbone of the country's economy. There are no huge bundles of
toxic real estate loans, which can also be explained by the fact that
Italian law makes it difficult for banks to seize property when
homeowners default on their mortgages. This means that banks often
require down-payments that only few people can afford. "The real estate
bubble occurred more in the underground economy and was financed with
personal capital," says Kockerbeck of Moody's.
Taking Matters into Their Own Hands
So should we admire Italy instead of ridiculing it? "Europe is
converging towards Italy," says Kockerbeck. The country, he explains,
has decades of experience in dealing with high debts and low growth
rates. These are lessons that the remaining E.U. countries still have to
learn if they are to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past 10 years.
There is no generous welfare state in Italy, and no extra funding
during the crisis. Where the state has failed, people have taken matters
into their own hands - and saved their euro cents. Household debt in
Italy is only 56.6 percent of annual disposable income, whereas in
Germany it is 89.4 percent, in Spain 127.8 percent and in the U.K. a
whopping 152.6 percent. Perhaps the lesson to be learned from the
Italian miracle is that everyone should look after themselves.
"Italians have never expected much from their government - they
don't trust it," says Beppe Severgnini, a columnist for the daily
newspaper Corriere della Sera. "They rely on themselves."
Severgnini writes best-selling books about the Italians' unique
mentality. "Italians are tightrope walkers," he says, explaining that
they have mastered the art of walking a fine line, without becoming
dizzy or looking down at the abyss. There's no doubt that the facts are
dramatic. The challenges facing Italy include the latest political
scandals, a government that is falling apart at the seams, extremely
high youth unemployment, the joint lowest birth rate in Europe (together
with Spain) and catastrophic cutbacks in the educational and health
systems. All of those things are well known - but they are only one
side of the story.
Bailing the Family Out
The other side, says Severgnini, is support within the family. Italians are animali sociali,
he says - family people. Everyone looks after themselves and their
clan. The family is Italy's real bailout package. It replaces the
missing welfare system, weathers any crisis and comes free of charge for
the state. In fact, it even makes life easier for it. Over 80 percent
of Italians own their own house or apartment, and the mortgages on most
of those properties are already paid off - another reason why there was
no real estate crash in Italy during the financial crisis.
During a crisis, families close ranks, place their older members less
often in retirement homes, live with three generations under one roof,
share the grandparents' retirement funds, line up jobs in their
family-owned businesses, lend each other vacation homes and dig into
their savings. "The family rescues the state," says Severgnini, "which
is another reason why Italy is doing relatively well during the
financial crisis."
The Italians have coined a name for this phenomenon: bamboccioni - literally, "big babies." The term is used to describe long-since
grown-up children who still live with their parents - and it applies to
70 percent of all 20- to 30-year-olds.
'I'm Too Old for a Fresh Start'
They are mainly well-educated men like Giorgio und Franco Mazzeo, who
are 44 and 36. Every night, the brothers fold out the sofa bed in their
parents' living room, a two-room apartment on the seventh floor of a
high-rise building in Trastevere, one of Rome's better neighborhoods.
They both have college degrees, and both have jobs, but no permanent
positions. Giorgio is an engineer and his brother works in a call
center. Together they earn less than their father receives for his
pension: nearly €2,000 ($2,600). Their mother Mazzeo cooks, cleans and
irons. Her sons help out, but they don't pay a cent. They can't pay
their own way, not in Rome, the city with the highest rents in Italy.
Each of them would have to pay over €1,000 a month to rent a room, with
too little left over for other expenses.
They like to complain at length about the crisis and about having to
live at home, something that they say robs them of their independence
and leaves them feeling discouraged. But when they have an opportunity
to move out - like Giorgio, who has purchased an apartment with his
savings and now only has to furnish the kitchen - they tend to
hesitate. "I'm too old for a fresh start," he says.
At night, as he lies on his mother's couch, he often wonders about
the future - about who will feed his children, should he decide to
bring any into this crisis-ridden world, and about what a normal life
might be like.
He has grown accustomed to the crisis. Should it be overcome some day, he will probably miss it.
Intellpuke: You can read this article by Spiegel journalists
Beat Balzli, Fiona Ehlers and Marc Hujer in context here:
www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,708701,00.html
This article was translated from the German for Spiegel by Paul Cohen.
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