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A Gloomy Picture
But such shows of optimism seem cynical in light of the descriptions
of the situation in Afghanistan provided in the classified documents.
Nearly nine years after the start of the war, they paint a gloomy
picture. They portray Afghan security forces as the hapless victims of
Taliban attacks. They also offer a conflicting impression of the
deployment of drones, noting that America's miracle weapons are also
entirely vulnerable.
And they show that the war in northern Afghanistan, where German
troops are stationed, is becoming increasingly perilous. The number of
warnings about possible Taliban attacks in the region - fueled by
support from Pakistan - has increased dramatically in the past year.
The documents offer a window into the war in the Hindu Kush - one
which promises to change the way we think about the ongoing violence in
Afghanistan. They will also be indispensable for anyone seeking to
inform themselves about the war in the future.
Despite repeated requests, the White House refused to provide any
comment in time for the deadline of the printed edition of SPIEGEL. On
Saturday evening, however, a White House official finally provided
written answers to select questions about the content of the reports
obtained, but refused to grant an interview.
Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for communications, said:
"Since taking office, President Obama has been very clear and candid
with the American people about the challenges that we face in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. The president and senior officials in his
administration have spoken openly and repeatedly about the safe havens
that exist in Pakistan, the security and governance challenges in
Afghanistan, and the difficulties that lie ahead. ... It is important to
note that the time period reflected in the documents is January 2004 to
December 2009. The war in Afghanistan was under-resourced for many
years. ... On Dec. 1, 2009, President Obama announced a new strategy and
new resources for Afghanistan and Pakistan precisely because of the
grave situation there."
Responding to the intention of WikiLeaks to make the classified
military documents available online, Rhodes said: "We strongly condemn
the disclosure of classified information by individuals and
organizations that put the lives of the U.S. and partner service members
at risk and threatens our national security." He said that WikiLeaks
made "no effort to contact the United States government about these
documents, which may contain information that endanger the lives of
Americans, our partners and local populations who cooperate with us."
The editors in chief of SPIEGEL, the New York Times and the Guardian
have agreed that they would not publish especially sensitive
information in the classified material - like the names of the U.S.
military's Afghan informants or information that could create additional
security risks for soldiers stationed in Afghanistan. The publishers
were unanimous in their belief that there is a justified public interest
in the material because it provides a more thorough understanding of a
war that continues today after almost nine years.
SPIEGEL ONLINE has summarized a selection of the most important findings in the data.
The members of Task Force 373, a troop of U.S. elite soldiers that
includes Navy Seals and members of the Delta Force, receive their orders
directly from the Pentagon and are independent of the chain of command
of the international ISAF Afghanistan security forces. Their mission is
to deactivate top Taliban and terrorists by either killing or capturing
them.
For years, a major effort was made to keep a lid on the details of
their deployment. With the leaking of the war logs on Sunday, however,
their work is an open secret.
The mission reports also offer considerable information about the
coalition troops' classified list of enemies. The "Joint Prioritized
Effects List" (JPEL), as it is soberly referred to in military circles,
contains the names of Taliban, drug barons, bomb-makers and al-Qaeda
members - each with a processing number and a priority level. The
decision on whether or not to arrest or kill the targeted person is
often left to the hunters themselves.
A total of 84 reports about JPEL actions can be found in the
thousands of pieces of data. Experts consider it a fact that targeted
killings are taking place in the war in Afghanistan. But no top military
officials are willing to discuss the issue. The newly released data now
show what command units like Task Force 373 are up to each night - and
how things can also go terribly wrong.
A report on June 17, 2007, for example, includes a warning in the
second sentence that this operation of the TF 373 must be "kept
protected." Details about the mission could not be provided to other
countries contributing to the ISAF forces.
The aim was to kill prominent al-Qaeda functionary Abu Laith al-Libi.
The special forces suspected that the top terrorist and several of his
followers were present at a Koran school the soldiers had been staking
out for a number of days.
But after the impact of five American rockets, instead of finding
al-Libi, the ground forces discovered six dead children in the rubble of
the school. A further seriously injured child was also found but could
not be saved.
The newly emerged documents do not contain any information suggesting
that German troops were involved in any excesses of violence against the
civilian population or in any illegal clandestine operations.
Nevertheless, they convey an image of Germany's armed forces, the
Bundeswehr, that is still devastating because they depict a German
military that stumbled into the conflict with great naiveté.
The Germans thought that the northern provinces where their soldiers
are stationed would be more peaceful compared to other provinces and
that the situation would remain that way.
They were wrong. As far back as the end of 2005, resistance against
the international troop presence began to grow - locals were either
threatened by the Taliban and powerful warlords or their support was
bought. Warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, for example, spurred the fighting
by offering 100,000 to 500,000 afghanis ($2,000 to $10,000) to the
leader of any insurgency group. Hekmatyar's appeals and cash donations
are carefully documented in the reports.
At the start of the deployment, some Bundeswehr soldiers jokingly
called the small city of Kunduz "Bad Kunduz," the word "Bad" being the
German word officially bestowed on spa towns. But peaceful days in
Kunduz, where a large number of German troops are stationed, have long
been a thing of the past. At the very latest, the quiet ended on May 19,
2007. That day, three German soldiers were killed by a suicide bomber
as they tried to buy refrigerators at a local market. Eight Afghan
civilians also died in the first deadly attack deliberately targeted at
Germans in the region.
In a "threat report" dated May 31, 2007, German troops based in
Kunduz reported on the general situation following another suicide
attack. "Contrary to all expectations of the Regional Command North, the
attacks of the insurgents in Kunduz are going on as foreseen by the
Provincial Reconstruction Team Kunduz and mentioned before several
times," the German document states, adding that more attacks,
particularly against ISAF troops, "are strongly expected."
The soldiers appear to have been correct to have felt they were under
a state of siege. The documents that have been obtained are comprised
primarily of so-called "threat reports," thousands of danger scenarios
and concrete warnings about planned attacks. These reports provide a
clearer picture of the deterioration of the security situation in
northern Afghanistan than the information provided by the German
government or the federal parliament, the Bundestag, which must provide a
legal mandate for the Bundeswehr's deployments abroad. Police
checkpoints are constantly attacked or come under fire, patrols are
targeted in deadly ambushes and roadside bombs explode.
They also show how close northern Afghanistan has slid toward a new
civil war and how little the Germans have achieved during their
deployment in the Hindu Kush.
The classified situation report from the "RC East" region in eastern
Afghanistan at first reads like a routine transcript: "Oct. 17, 2009: At
approximately 1300 ANA (Afghan National Army) received intelligence
that approximately 20 insurgents were moving south of their position in
the wadi (dried-out river bed). At approximately 1400 the Raven was
launched, and flew directly to FB. We observed no enemy in the wadi."
But problems were then experienced with the flight of the Raven, a U.S.
military reconnaissance drone. "While making the U turn, approximately
300M from FB (Fire Base) - the bird suddenly lost altitude and
crashed," the report states.
Then the situation grew hectic: "Immediately we attempted to secure a
dismounted patrol from FB to secure the bird, and prepared a patrol of 6
US (soldiers) 40 ANA (Afghan soldiers) ... and requested immediate CCA
(air cover) to over watch the crash site and try to get eyes on the
raven. While preparing to SP (conduct a search patrol) the ANA got cold
feet and decided they did not want to do the dismounted patrol."
In the end the soldiers did set out to search for the crashed drone,
but they had to turn back because insurgents were reportedy already
waiting for the opportunity to ambush the soldiers as they attempted to
salvage the drone.
System Failures, Computer Glitches and Human Error
Indeed, the secret memos reveal the drawbacks of a weapon that has
been lauded by the U.S. military as a panacea, a view shared by the
president. In his short time in office, Barack Obama has unleashed
double the number of drone missions ordered by his seemingly
trigger-happy predecessor, George W. Bush.
The unmanned assassin can fly for more than 20 hours and kill at
lightning speed. But they are not always reliable. According to official
reports, 38 Predator and Reaper drones have crashed while on combat
missions in both Afghanistan and Iraq, while a further nine have crashed
during test flights on military bases in the U.S. Each crash costs the
government between $3.7 million (€2.8 million) and $5 million.
The U.S. Department of Defense accident reports show that system
failures, computer glitches and human errors are common occurrences
during drone missions. It seems that serious problems were ignored
because of the need for the drones to be deployed as quickly as
possible. The new weapon was urgently in demand following the terrorist
attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 and the hasty start of the invasion of
Afghanistan.
"The drones were not ready for going into combat," says Travis
Burdine, manager of the Air Force Unmanned Aircraft Systems Task Force.
"We had no time to iron out the problems." Burdine's statement is backed
up by reports in the war logs. Indeed, the quiet killers seem to have a
lot of defects.
It is not just the costs incurred by these crashes that worry the U.S.
military. Even the smaller reconnaissance drones are packed with
complicated computer technology - advances the military doesn't want to
fall into enemy hands. Both Reapers and Predators have a so-called
"zero out" function, which allows data to be deleted remotely.
Unfortunately, this feature sometimes fails. And out of fear that
important information could fall into the hands of the Taliban, each
drone crash necessitates elaborate - and dangerous - salvage
operations.
The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's
secret service, originally helped to build up and deploy the Taliban
after Afghanistan descended into a bitter and fratricidal civil war
between the mujahedeen who had prevailed over the Soviets and forced
their withdrawal. Despite all of the reassurances from Pakistani
politicians that the old ties are cut, the country is still pursuing an
ambiguous policy in the region - at once serving as both an ally to the
U.S. and as a helper to its enemy.
There is plenty of new evidence to support this thesis. The documents
clearly show that the Pakistani intelligence agency is the most
important accomplice the Taliban has outside of Afghanistan. The war
against the Afghan security forces, the Americans and their ISAF allies
is still being conducted from Pakistan.
The country is an important safe haven for enemy forces - and serves
as a base for issuing their deployment. New recruits to the Taliban
stream across the Pakistan-Afghan border, including feared foreign
fighters - among them Arabs, Chechnyans, Uzbekis, Uighurs and even
European Islamists.
According to the war logs, the ISI envoys are present when insurgent
commanders hold war councils - and even give specific orders to carry
out murders. These include orders to try to assassinate Afghan President
Hamid Karzai. For example, a threat report dated August 21, 2008
warned: "Colonel Mohammad Yusuf from the ISI had directed Taliban
official Maulawi Izzatullah to see that Karzai was assassinated."
Former Pakistan intelligence chief General Hamid Gul plays a
prominent role in the ISI documents. After he left office, Gul came
across in the Western media as a kind of propagandist for the Taliban.
In the documents, Gul is depicted as an important source of aid to the
Taliban and even, in one report, as "a leader" of the insurgents. One
threat report from Jan. 14, 2008 claims that he coordinated the planned
kidnapping of United Nations employees on Highway 1 between Kabul and
Jalalabad.
The memos state that Gul ordered suicide attacks, and they also
describe the former intelligence chief as one of the most important
suppliers of weaponry to the Taliban. One report mentions a convoy of 65
trucks carrying munitions that Gul allegedly organized for the Taliban.
Another claims the ISI delivered 1,000 motorcycles to the Haqqanis, a
warlord family led by Sirajuddin Haqqani who - together with the
Taliban and Hekmatyar - are among the three greatest opponents of
Western forces in Afghanistan. Another mentions 7,000 weapons that were
sent to the border province of Kunar, including Kalashnikovs, mortars
and Strella rockets.
Still, even those who drew up the reports are uncertain of their
veracity. This kind of uncertainty creeps up often in the documents.
They reveal the great weakness of the U.S. communications strategy.
Addressing the facets about Pakistan, White House official Rhodes
responded: "The status quo is not acceptable, which is precisely why
the United States had focused so much on this challenge. Pakistan is
moving in the right direction, but more must be done. The safe havens
for violent extremist groups within Pakistan continue to pose an
intolerable threat to the United States, to Afghanistan and to the
Pakistani people who have suffered greatly from terrorism. The
Pakistani government - and Pakistan's military and intelligence
services - must continue their strategic shift against violent
extremist groups within their borders and stay on the offensive against
them."
America's intelligence agencies are drowning in a sea of data.
Fearful of repeating the intelligence mistakes that occurred prior to
9/11, analysts seem to be blindly reporting every single thing.
Security experts have been complaining for some time that these
countless reports concentrate too heavily on the opinions and the
movements of the enemy - in this case on the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Far too many analysts and too many reconnaissance flights seem to be
concerned with sketching out the hierarchy of the insurgents' networks
and creating lists of enemies who should be killed or captured.
Intelligence agents are constantly gathering statements from local
informants, whose eagerness to please the Americans often surpasses
their reliability.
Yet the most serious issues are too often overlooked: The protection
of the Afghan civilians, the analysis of the political environment and
the search for solution to this endless conflict.
One thing, however, is certain. These thousands of secret documents
indicate that, after almost nine years of war, a victory in Hindu Kush
looks farther away than ever.
Intellpuke: You can read this article by Spiegel journalists
Matthias Gebauer, John Goetz, Hans Hoyng, Susanne Koelbl, Marcel
Rosenbach and Gregor Peter Schmitz in context here:
www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,708314,00.html
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