The stunning employment gain was close to the highest on record, second
only to an increase of about 109,000 jobs two months earlier. The June
hiring brought the combined total of new positions created since last
July to 403,000, restoring most of the jobs lost during the recession.
The jobless rate dropped to 7.9 per cent from 8.1 per cent.
"The jobs picture clearly shows that the Canadian recovery hasn't
stalled yet," said Benjamin Reitzes, an economist with BMO Capital
Markets. "The handoff from public to private spending looks to be going
smoothly."
The jobs report, far stronger than expected, also lays the groundwork
for another interest-rate hike later this month, following a
quarter-point increase by the Bank of Canada in early June, economists
said. The quickly improving jobs picture, along with rising interest
rates, stands in sharp contrast with the still-sluggish economy south of
the border. Only a fraction of the more than eight million jobs lost in
the United States between late 2007 and late 2009 have been restored,
while the U.S. Federal Reserve shows no sign of raising its near-zero
interest rates any time soon.
The Canadian dollar soared by nearly a full cent against the U.S. dollar
Friday, as investors bet that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will
raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points on July 20
to 0.75 per cent.
Economists caution that Canada's economy and job creation are not
guaranteed to continue at the current clip.
Since June 1, when Carney became the first central banker in the
Group of Seven to lift borrowing costs, the European debt crisis has
produced a march toward austerity in the world's rich economies, a cure
which some analysts warn could prove painful. Also, the recovery in the
United States, Canada’s top export market, looks increasingly fragile,
as housing and the labor market sputter. And there are fears that
measures to keep emerging-market economies such as China's from
overheating could cool a vital source of global demand.
For export-heavy Canada, where the housing market is already slowing
down, that means it’s highly unlikely that the current pace of job
creation, let alone the first quarter’s 6.1-per-cent economic growth
rate, are sustainable.
"Any realistic look at what’s happening in the U.S., Europe, China,
suggests that the second half of this year will be much, much weaker
than the first half," said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World
Markets. "This recovery is going to be the most nonlinear
recovery in ages. The story will not be as pretty three months from
now."
Carney later this month will release his latest forecasts for Canada
and for key countries and regions around the world. Most economists,
including Tal, say things are good enough in Canada for now that the
central bank will probably keep raising interest rates in
25-basis-point increments until the benchmark rate is at 1 or 1.25 per
cent, but then policy makers will pause to assess how much global
headwinds are affecting the domestic economy.
Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto,
on Friday predicted "a pattern of oscillating rate hikes and pauses" as Carney takes a cautious approach.
Another concern is the type of jobs being created. Retail and other
service-sector jobs tend to be more temporary, based on flexible hours,
and are often lower-paying, economists said. The goods-producing
industries that make many of Canada’s exported products saw a net job
loss in June.
Still, Canada's job gains are far brighter than in the United States,
where the jobless rate is still 9.5 per cent and in recent months has
dropped only because discouraged job-seekers have stopped looking and
thus aren’t counted as part of the labor force.
Carney started warning in April that Canada's rebound from the
crisis would slow considerably starting in the second quarter because of
a slowdown in housing, the impact of the loonie near parity with the
U.S. dollar and the inevitable end of government support.
Pointing to those factors, plus “uneven” global growth and
sovereign-debt worries, Carney has said several times that a return
to more normal interest rates is not "preordained."
On Monday, he will release a closely watched survey of executives from
across the country, which will give a sense of how worried businesses
are about Canada becoming a victim of economic problems from outside its
borders.
"I have doubts about whether the economy is going to be able to keep up
the head of steam that it has right now," said Carl Weinberg, chief
economist with High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. "The U.S.
economy is questionable, Europe is in trouble, Japan is in trouble, all
the major trading partners are hurting and the loonie is quite strong,"
he said. "So it’s hard to look at the months ahead and draw a strong
line on the chart for where GDP is headed."
Intellpuke:
You can read this article by Globe and Mail staff writer Jeremy
Torobin, reporting from Ottawa, Canada, in context here:
www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-job-machine-revs-into-high-gear/article1633942/
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