Brian Katulis is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C.,
a left-wing think tank with close ties to the administration of U.S.
President Barack Obama. His work there specializes on Iraq, national
security, terrorism and politics in the Middle East.
The Spiegel Online interview with Mr. Katulis follows:
High turnout in the recent Iraqi election is
fueling hope that stability in the war-torn country may not be far off.
But the challenges Iraq faces are still considerable. In a Spiegel
Online interview, Iraq expert Brian Katulis warns that the country must
act decisively to ensure its own future before the United States
finishes its planned withdrawal in 2011.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Initial reports on the parliamentary elections
in Iraq have been encouraging. Sixty-two percent of the electorate cast
their ballots. This is slightly lower than it was in 2005 but, given
the recent spate of violence, still significant. Was Sunday a good day
for Iraq's democracy?
Brian Katulis: Election Day was a very good day for Iraq. The
real test will come in the coming months. For Iraq's democracy to take
real root, the country's leaders need to move forward on resolving
power-sharing disputes and protecting the rights of all citizens,
especially religious minorities, such as Christians, who have faced
tremendous persecution in many parts of the country.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Final election results are not expected for
several days, if not weeks. Is it likely that a potential election
cliffhanger could lead to more violence?
Katulis: Uncertainty about the elections could fuel more
tensions on the ground. Since the country has been flooded with weapons
over the past six years - with many of them going to militias and
other groups outside of the Iraqi security forces - a danger exists
that some political groups might try to use these weapons to settle
political scores. But I doubt violence would return to (the level it
was at during) the ugly days of Iraq's civil war, in 2006 and 2007. How
the Iraqi security forces, including certain divisions of the Iraqi
army, react to the election results is something many Iraq-watchers are
monitoring.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: A lot will depend on the willingness of the
election's losers to accept its results. How do you think people will
react if the election is contested? Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi,
who seems to be trailing current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has
already indicated he would accuse the other side of fraud.
Katulis: In many early elections in countries undergoing
political transitions, various parties and candidates dispute the
legitimacy of the results. So, I'm not surprised by early complaints,
and I suspect there will be many more to come. The question is whether
Iraq's institutions, including the electoral commission and the
judiciary, deal with such complaints in a transparent and efficient
manner.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will the new divide between Shiites, who mostly
voted for Maliki, and Sunnis, who largely backed Allawi, exacerbate
divisions within the country?
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