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The Bank of Canada warned
Thursday that growing household debt is now the biggest risk to the
country's financial system and repeated a plea for borrowers and lenders to remember that the current era of super-low interest rates won't last.
While saying market conditions and the global economy have improved,
and that Canada's exposure to a near-term negative shock has “declined
modestly” in the past six months, the central bank used its semi-annual
review of the financial system to highlight risks posed by homeowners
taking on mortgages they may not be able to handle when borrowing costs
rise.
“Households need to assess their ability to service these debt
obligations over their entire maturity, taking into account likely
changes in both income and interest rates,” said the central bank.
“Financial institutions need to carefully consider the aggregate
risk to their entire portfolio of household exposures when evaluating
even an insured mortgage, since a household defaulting on an insured
mortgage would likely be unable to meet its other debt obligations.”
The nascent economic recovery makes it less likely that “substantial
credit losses” on Canadian households loan portfolios could infect the
rest of the financial system, and the potential for “system-wide
stress” as a result is a “relatively low-probability” risk, the bank
said. Still, it noted that household debt remains “a key vulnerability
over time,” especially with the ratio of debt to income reaching a
record 1.42 in the second quarter of this year.
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