|
More Efficiency, More Democracy
Despite increasing skepticism, the Lisbon Treaty will bring about
several sensible changes. For example, the requirement of having
unanimity will be dropped in a number of areas. Given the fact that the
E.U. has 27 member states, this step is long overdue. Beginning in 2014,
for a measure to be passed, it will have to be approved by at least 55
percent of these states, which together must account for at least 65
percent of the combined population of the E.U. Under these conditions,
Germany's influence in the international forum will grow. With its 82
million inhabitants, its percentage of the vote will jump from 8.4
percent to 17.2 percent.
The reforms will not only make the E.U. more efficient, but also more
democratic. In the future, the European Parliament will have greater
power of co-decision, and national parliaments will also be informed
earlier about E.U. directives so that they have more time to react and,
if necessary, express their reservations, rather than just being handed
a fait accompli. National vetoes will still apply in the areas of
foreign, tax and social policy.
The biggest headline-grabbers will be the new posts created by the
Lisbon Treaty aimed at creating a higher profile for the E.U. on the
international stage. The presidency of the Council of the European
Union will no longer rotate to a different country every six months as
it has up until now. Instead, the president will remain at the helm for
two-and-a-half years. The new E.U. foreign minister, who will officially
be called the high representative for foreign policy, will also have a
diplomatic corps with 3,500 officials. These offices have huge
potential - how that potential is used will depend on who is selected
for the offices.
For weeks now, leaders of the E.U. member states have been negotiating
future personnel - with an almost endless flow of telephone calls. The
first E.U. president and foreign minister are expected to be chosen at a
special E.U. summit in mid-November. But one early decision did fall at
last week's E.U. summit in Brussels: The European Socialists have decided
they want to stake a claim on the foreign minister post. Conservative
E.U. leaders would then be left to seek a president for the council.
Tensions Expected Between Old and New Guard
That decision has pushed former British Prime Minister Tony Blair,
who has long been considered a leading possibility for the office of
the first president, out of the running - unless the conservatives were to pick a social democrat, a
development that is hardly likely. German Chancellor Angela Merkel in
recent days expressed her preference for a president from a smaller E.U.
member state. And French President Nicolas Sarkozy doesn't want to make
a decision that is counter to Merkel's line. In place of Blair, the
names now being dropped are those of Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schussel.
For the foreign minister post, British Foreign Minister David
Miliband is seen as a strong candidate, although up until now he has
brushed off talk of a possible candidacy. One reason for his delaying
is the concern that a move to Brussels only a few months before the
British general election could be interpreted as jumping from a Labor
government that is a sinking ship. Some even believe his ambition is to
inherit Prime Minister Gordon Brown's position as party chair.
Once the personnel issues have been addressed, the true test of the
Lisbon Treaty will begin. Frictions between the old E.U. leaders - the
government leaders and European Commission - and the new
representatives are inevitable. In the coming months, a new division of
labor must be developed within the European institutions.
E.U.'s Economic Interests Under-Represented
The Lisbon Treaty leaves many old E.U. problems unsolved. The
fundamental dispute over whether the E.U. should be broadened or deepened
will continue unabated. Former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen
demanded in an interview with the Financial Times that the
eurozone members should make it their aim to introduce the single
currency in all E.U. member states by 2020. Many countries would bitterly
oppose that, especially Britain. Other member states, meanwhile, are
against expanding the E.U.
Critics say the Lisbon Treaty will already be out of date when it
comes into force. A new global economic order has emerged in the eight
years it took Europe to ratify it. The G-20 has replaced the G-8 as the
global forum of leading economic powers and the E.U. has lost some of its
global clout. While the Lisbon Treaty will improve the E.U.'s outward
representation, critics say the bloc isn't good enough at defending its
economic interests against those of the U.S. and China. Most E.U. states
continue to behave like competitors, which leads to internal European
battles for prestige within the G-20.
It will take time for these issues to be resolved. After the
nightmare of getting Lisbon ratified, the heads of government are
yearning for a quiet spell, free of reforms. They want the next few
years to be a period of consolidation. The E.U. hasn't yet totally
digested its eastward expansion, and the new decision-making processes
will need to be tried and tested.
The next challenges are already on the horizon. The British general
election next spring will probably produce an extremely euroskeptic
government in London. And the accession talks with the Balkan countries
and Turkey will keep on triggering intense debates about the role of
the E.U. Lisbon was just an interim victory for the E.U. project -
nothing more.
Intellpuke: You can read this article by Spiegel journalist
Carsten Volkery, reporting from London, England, in context here:
www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,659038,00.html
|