In the evolving narrative of the Blair era, the Kosovo intervention is described as a key moment whose perceived success led fatefully to Afghanistan and Iraq. But after eight years of unpaid bills and hard choices deferred, a moment of reckoning is coming - and the legacy storyline is twisting dangerously awry. Kosovo's second war of independence may be only months away.

Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. diplomat who negotiated an end to the Bosnian war, warned this week that Russian opposition to a U.N. plan for Kosovo's conditional, internationally supervised statehood may ignite a new conflagration. "Russia's actions could determine whether there is another war in Europe," Holbrooke said in a Washington Post op-ed article. A disastrous domino effect would then ensue.

"If Moscow vetoes or delays the [U.N.] plan, the Kosovar Albanians will declare independence unilaterally," he said. "Some countries, including the United States and many Muslim states, would probably recognize them, but most of the European Union would not. A major European crisis would be assured. Bloodshed would return to the Balkans. NATO, which is pledged to keep peace in Kosovo, could find itself back in battle in Europe."